:Product: 0620RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jun 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 171 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jun 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (21
Jun, 22 Jun, 23 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 462 km/s at 20/0126Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
20/2003Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
20/1957Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 4546 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (21 Jun, 22 Jun, 23
Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Jun 076
Predicted   21 Jun-23 Jun 078/078/078
90 Day Mean        20 Jun 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jun  005/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jun  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun  006/005-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10