:Product: 0623RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jun 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 174 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jun 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
23/0707Z. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (24
Jun, 25 Jun, 26 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 376 km/s at 23/0817Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
23/0713Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
22/2242Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 730 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (24 Jun, 25 Jun, 26
Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Jun 080
Predicted   24 Jun-26 Jun 082/085/085
90 Day Mean        23 Jun 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jun  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jun  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun  005/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/10/10