:Product: 0624RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jun 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 175 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jun 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (25
Jun, 26 Jun, 27 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 384 km/s at 24/2041Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
24/1940Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
24/2006Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1093 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (25 Jun, 26 Jun, 27
Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Jun-27 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Jun 081
Predicted   25 Jun-27 Jun 082/082/082
90 Day Mean        24 Jun 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jun  006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jun  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jun-27 Jun  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jun-27 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10