:Product: 0625RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jun 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 176 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jun 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
25/1403Z from Region 2833 (N24W92). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (26
Jun, 27 Jun, 28 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 432 km/s at 25/0821Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 24/2301Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
24/2310Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 540 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (26 Jun, 27 Jun, 28
Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Jun 083
Predicted   26 Jun-28 Jun 082/082/082
90 Day Mean        25 Jun 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jun  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jun  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jun-28 Jun  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10