:Product: 0626RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jun 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 177 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jun 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Jun,
28 Jun, 29 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 416 km/s at 25/2257Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
26/1424Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
26/1313Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 223 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (27 Jun, 28 Jun, 29
Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Jun-29 Jun
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Jun 082
Predicted   27 Jun-29 Jun 082/083/084
90 Day Mean        26 Jun 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jun  008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jun  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jun-29 Jun  006/005-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jun-29 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10