:Product: 0627RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jun 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 178 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jun 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Jun,
29 Jun, 30 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 388 km/s at 27/0028Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 302 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (28 Jun, 29 Jun) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (30 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Jun-30 Jun
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Jun 087
Predicted   28 Jun-30 Jun 088/090/090
90 Day Mean        27 Jun 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jun  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jun  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jun-30 Jun  006/005-005/005-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jun-30 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/25