:Product: 0628RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jun 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 179 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jun 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
28/0935Z from Region 2836 (S28E21). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Jun,
30 Jun, 01 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 384 km/s at 27/2340Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
28/0105Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
27/2231Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 343 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (29 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (30 Jun, 01 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Jun-01 Jul
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Jun 089
Predicted   29 Jun-01 Jul 090/090/090
90 Day Mean        28 Jun 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jun  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jun  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jun-01 Jul  005/005-008/010-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jun-01 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    10/25/30