:Product: 0629RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jun 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 180 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jun 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Jun,
01 Jul, 02 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 350 km/s at 29/1655Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
29/1518Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
29/1518Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 367 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (30 Jun,
01 Jul, 02 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Jun 093
Predicted   30 Jun-02 Jul 092/092/092
90 Day Mean        29 Jun 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jun  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jun  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jun-02 Jul  008/010-008/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    25/30/20