:Product: 0701RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jul 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 182 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jul 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Jul,
03 Jul, 04 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 523 km/s at 30/2201Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 01/0317Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
01/0033Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 176 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (02 Jul,
03 Jul, 04 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Jul-04 Jul
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Jul 094
Predicted   02 Jul-04 Jul 094/094/094
90 Day Mean        01 Jul 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jun  011/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jul  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jul-04 Jul  008/008-009/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jul-04 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/20
Minor Storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    25/40/25