:Product: 0702RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jul 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 183 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jul 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Jul,
04 Jul, 05 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 499 km/s at 02/2004Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
01/2147Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
02/1413Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 160 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (03 Jul,
04 Jul, 05 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Jul-05 Jul
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Jul 095
Predicted   03 Jul-05 Jul 094/094/094
90 Day Mean        02 Jul 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jul  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jul  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jul-05 Jul  009/012-008/008-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jul-05 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/25
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    40/25/30