:Product: 0703RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jul 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 184 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jul 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
03/1429Z from Region 2838 (N24W88). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (04 Jul) and expected to be
low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class
flare on day two (05 Jul) and likely to be low with a slight chance for
an M-class flare on day three (06 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 517 km/s at 03/0027Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 190 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (04 Jul,
05 Jul, 06 Jul). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing
threshold on day one (04 Jul) and have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day two (05 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul
Class M    55/35/15
Class X    25/15/05
Proton     25/15/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Jul 094
Predicted   04 Jul-06 Jul 094/092/092
90 Day Mean        03 Jul 078

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jul  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jul  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jul-06 Jul  008/008-009/010-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    25/30/25