:Product: 0704RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jul 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jul 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
04/0509Z from Region 2838 (N24, L=099). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Jul,
06 Jul, 07 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 402 km/s at 03/2147Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 173 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (05 Jul, 06 Jul)
and quiet levels on day three (07 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Jul 091
Predicted   05 Jul-07 Jul 090/090/085
90 Day Mean        04 Jul 078

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jul  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jul  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul  009/010-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    30/25/20