:Product: 0705RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jul 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 186 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jul 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
05/1843Z from Region 2836 (S26W78). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Jul,
07 Jul, 08 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 354 km/s at 05/0419Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 05/1611Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
05/1611Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 325 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Jul) and quiet levels
on days two and three (07 Jul, 08 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Jul 089
Predicted   06 Jul-08 Jul 090/085/082
90 Day Mean        05 Jul 078

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jul  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jul  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul  008/008-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/20/20