:Product: 0707RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jul 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 188 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jul 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
06/2150Z from Region 2835 (S18W82). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (08 Jul) and expected to
be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and
three (09 Jul, 10 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 402 km/s at 07/0347Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
07/2055Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
07/0702Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 161 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (08 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (09 Jul, 10 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul
Class M    05/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Jul 076
Predicted   08 Jul-10 Jul 076/074/074
90 Day Mean        07 Jul 078

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jul  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jul  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jul-10 Jul  005/005-007/008-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/25
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    20/25/30