:Product: 0709RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jul 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
09/1050Z from Region 2840 (N27, L=036). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (10 Jul, 11 Jul, 12 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 339 km/s at 09/1343Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
09/2032Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
09/0909Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 171 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (10 Jul), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (11 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (12 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Jul 074
Predicted   10 Jul-12 Jul 073/073/073
90 Day Mean        09 Jul 078

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul  005/005-007/008-012/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/25
Minor Storm           01/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    10/25/40