:Product: 0711RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jul 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 192 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (12 Jul, 13 Jul, 14 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 444 km/s at 10/2335Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
10/2142Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
11/1311Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 159 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (12 Jul, 13
Jul, 14 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Jul 074
Predicted   12 Jul-14 Jul 074/074/073
90 Day Mean        11 Jul 078

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul  012/012-014/016-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/25
Minor Storm           10/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    40/50/40