:Product: 0712RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jul 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (13 Jul, 14 Jul, 15 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 345 km/s at 12/1356Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
12/1259Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
12/1421Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 165 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (13 Jul, 14 Jul) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (15 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Jul 072
Predicted   13 Jul-15 Jul 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        12 Jul 078

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jul  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jul  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul  014/016-011/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/25
Minor Storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    50/40/30