:Product: 0713RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jul 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jul 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (14 Jul, 15 Jul, 16 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 374 km/s at 13/0233Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 12/2246Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
12/2255Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 180 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (14 Jul), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (15 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (16 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Jul 072
Predicted   14 Jul-16 Jul 072/072/075
90 Day Mean        13 Jul 078

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jul  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jul  007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul  011/012-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/10
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    40/30/10