:Product: 0714RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jul 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (15 Jul, 16 Jul, 17 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 393 km/s at 14/2009Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 14/1741Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at
14/1647Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 135 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Jul) and quiet levels on
days two and three (16 Jul, 17 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Jul 072
Predicted   15 Jul-17 Jul 072/075/075
90 Day Mean        14 Jul 078

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul  007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jul  010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul  009/008-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    30/10/10