:Product: 0715RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jul 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jul 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (16 Jul, 17 Jul, 18 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 486 km/s at 15/1305Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 15/1153Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
15/1613Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 153 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (16 Jul) and quiet levels
on days two and three (17 Jul, 18 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Jul 074
Predicted   16 Jul-18 Jul 074/076/074
90 Day Mean        15 Jul 078

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jul  010/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jul  009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul  010/010-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/10/10