:Product: 0716RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jul 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 197 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jul 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
16/0837Z from Region 2843 (S17W72). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (17
Jul, 18 Jul, 19 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 493 km/s at 15/2205Z.  Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 235 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (17 Jul, 18 Jul, 19
Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Jul 075
Predicted   17 Jul-19 Jul 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        16 Jul 078

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jul  012/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jul  006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10