:Product: 0717RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jul 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 198 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jul 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (18
Jul, 19 Jul, 20 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 436 km/s at 17/1119Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
17/2037Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
17/1401Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 386 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (18 Jul, 19 Jul, 20
Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Jul 077
Predicted   18 Jul-20 Jul 077/077/080
90 Day Mean        17 Jul 078

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jul  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jul  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jul-20 Jul  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10