:Product: 0718RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jul 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 199 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jul 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (19
Jul, 20 Jul, 21 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 407 km/s at 18/1050Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
17/2259Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
18/1324Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 315 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (19 Jul, 20 Jul, 21
Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Jul-21 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Jul 080
Predicted   19 Jul-21 Jul 080/085/085
90 Day Mean        18 Jul 078

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jul  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jul  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jul-21 Jul  006/005-006/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jul-21 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/20
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/25