:Product: 0719RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jul 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 200 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jul 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
19/1907Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Jul,
21 Jul, 22 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 450 km/s at 19/1847Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 19/1240Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
19/1311Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 403 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (20 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (21 Jul, 22 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Jul 083
Predicted   20 Jul-22 Jul 084/088/088
90 Day Mean        19 Jul 078

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jul  005/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jul  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul  006/005-007/008-009/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/20
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    10/25/25