:Product: 0721RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jul 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 202 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jul 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
21/2005Z from Region 2845 (S15W61). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one and two (22 Jul, 23 Jul) and expected to be very low with a chance
for a C-class flares on day three (24 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 543 km/s at 21/0811Z.  Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 274 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (22 Jul), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (23 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three
(24 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul
Class M    05/05/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Jul 094
Predicted   22 Jul-24 Jul 094/092/090
90 Day Mean        21 Jul 078

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jul  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jul  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul  007/008-013/018-013/016

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/40/35
Minor Storm           05/25/20
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    25/60/50