:Product: 0723RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jul 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 204 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jul 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Jul,
25 Jul, 26 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 457 km/s at 22/2119Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 245 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (24 Jul) and quiet levels
on days two and three (25 Jul, 26 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Jul-26 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Jul 087
Predicted   24 Jul-26 Jul 087/085/085
90 Day Mean        23 Jul 078

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jul  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jul  008/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jul-26 Jul  010/012-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jul-26 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/10/10
Minor Storm           20/05/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    50/20/15