:Product: 0724RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jul 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 205 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jul 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
24/0033Z from Region 2849 (S27E25). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (25
Jul, 26 Jul, 27 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 406 km/s at 23/2254Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
24/0413Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
24/1328Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 309 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (25 Jul, 26 Jul, 27
Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Jul 084
Predicted   25 Jul-27 Jul 085/085/085
90 Day Mean        24 Jul 078

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jul  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jul  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jul-27 Jul  006/005-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/15/15