:Product: 0726RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jul 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 207 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jul 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (27
Jul, 28 Jul, 29 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 396 km/s at 26/0710Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 484 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (27 Jul, 29
Jul) and quiet to active levels on day two (28 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Jul 081
Predicted   27 Jul-29 Jul 082/082/080
90 Day Mean        26 Jul 079

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jul  005/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jul  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jul-29 Jul  007/008-009/012-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/25
Minor Storm           01/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    20/40/30