:Product: 0727RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jul 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 208 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jul 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (28 Jul) and
expected to be very low on days two and three (29 Jul, 30 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 336 km/s at 27/2053Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at
27/2047Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
27/1255Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 410 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (28 Jul), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (29 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (30 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Jul-30 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Jul 080
Predicted   28 Jul-30 Jul 080/078/078
90 Day Mean        27 Jul 079

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jul  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jul  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jul-30 Jul  010/012-008/010-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jul-30 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/10
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    40/30/20