:Product: 0729RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jul 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 210 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jul 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (30 Jul, 31 Jul, 01 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 574 km/s at 29/0345Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 29/1901Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
29/0753Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 383 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (30 Jul, 31 Jul)
and quiet to active levels on day three (01 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Jul-01 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Jul 076
Predicted   30 Jul-01 Aug 076/076/074
90 Day Mean        29 Jul 079

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jul  013/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jul  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jul-01 Aug  008/008-008/010-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jul-01 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/30
Minor Storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    30/40/40