:Product: 0730RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jul 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 211 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jul 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (31 Jul, 01 Aug, 02 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 522 km/s at 30/1220Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
30/0355Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
30/0629Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 779 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (31 Jul, 02
Aug) and quiet to active levels on day two (01 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Jul 076
Predicted   31 Jul-02 Aug 076/074/072
90 Day Mean        30 Jul 079

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jul  012/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jul  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jul-02 Aug  008/010-010/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/20
Minor Storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    40/40/25