:Product: 0731RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jul 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 212 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jul 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (01 Aug, 02 Aug, 03 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 492 km/s at 30/2102Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
30/2338Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
31/1817Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 379 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 Aug), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (02 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (03 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Jul 076
Predicted   01 Aug-03 Aug 074/072/072
90 Day Mean        31 Jul 079

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jul  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jul  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Aug-03 Aug  010/012-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/15
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    40/25/20