:Product: 0803RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Aug 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 215 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Aug 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (04
Aug, 05 Aug, 06 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 417 km/s at 02/2115Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 02/2121Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
02/2115Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 250 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (04 Aug), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (05 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day three (06 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Aug 076
Predicted   04 Aug-06 Aug 076/076/076
90 Day Mean        03 Aug 079

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Aug  015/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Aug  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug  005/005-007/008-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/30
Minor Storm           01/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    20/25/40