:Product: 0804RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Aug 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 216 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Aug 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (05 Aug, 06
Aug) and expected to be very low on day three (07 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 442 km/s at 03/2322Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
03/2116Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
03/2114Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1132 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (05 Aug, 07
Aug) and quiet to active levels on day two (06 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Aug 071
Predicted   05 Aug-07 Aug 072/072/070
90 Day Mean        04 Aug 079

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Aug  013/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Aug  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug  007/008-010/012-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/30/20
Minor Storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    25/40/25