:Product: 0805RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Aug 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (06 Aug, 07 Aug, 08 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 327 km/s at 04/2100Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
05/1604Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
05/1533Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1569 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (06 Aug) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (07 Aug, 08 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Aug 074
Predicted   06 Aug-08 Aug 074/073/075
90 Day Mean        05 Aug 079

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Aug  003/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug  010/012-008/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    40/25/25