:Product: 0806RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Aug 06 2245 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Aug 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on day one (07 Aug) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for
a C-class flare on days two and three (08 Aug, 09 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 321 km/s at 06/0404Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at
06/2059Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
06/2100Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 Aug) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (08 Aug, 09 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Aug 074
Predicted   07 Aug-09 Aug 073/075/075
90 Day Mean        06 Aug 079

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Aug  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Aug  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug  010/010-007/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    30/25/25