:Product: 0807RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Aug 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 219 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (08 Aug, 09 Aug, 10 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 501 km/s at 07/1607Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 07/0622Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
06/2102Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 138 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (08 Aug) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (09 Aug, 10 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Aug 074
Predicted   08 Aug-10 Aug 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        07 Aug 079

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug  009/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Aug  012/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug  009/010-008/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    25/25/25