:Product: 0810RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Aug 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (11 Aug, 12 Aug, 13 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 463 km/s at 10/1407Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 10/0352Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
10/0235Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 142 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 Aug) and quiet levels
on days two and three (12 Aug, 13 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Aug 073
Predicted   11 Aug-13 Aug 074/073/073
90 Day Mean        10 Aug 079

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug  006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Aug  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug  008/008-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/15/15