:Product: 0811RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Aug 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 223 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Aug 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (12 Aug, 13 Aug, 14 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 509 km/s at 11/0849Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 11/0439Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
11/0433Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 209 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (12 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (13 Aug, 14 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Aug 074
Predicted   12 Aug-14 Aug 074/004/074
90 Day Mean        11 Aug 079

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Aug  009/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Aug  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Aug-14 Aug  005/005-006/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/20
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    15/25/25