:Product: 0812RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Aug 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 224 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Aug 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (13 Aug, 14 Aug, 15 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 448 km/s at 12/0353Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
12/1559Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
12/1418Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 158 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (13 Aug,
14 Aug, 15 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Aug 074
Predicted   13 Aug-15 Aug 073/073/072
90 Day Mean        12 Aug 079

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Aug  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Aug  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Aug-15 Aug  006/008-008/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    25/25/25