:Product: 0813RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Aug 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 225 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Aug 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (14 Aug, 15 Aug, 16 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 467 km/s at 13/1421Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 13/0835Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
13/0653Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 165 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (14 Aug, 15 Aug)
and quiet levels on day three (16 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Aug 073
Predicted   14 Aug-16 Aug 073/072/072
90 Day Mean        13 Aug 079

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Aug  006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Aug  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug  008/008-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    25/25/15