:Product: 0816RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Aug 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Aug 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (17
Aug, 18 Aug, 19 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 518 km/s at 15/2317Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 16/0336Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
15/2116Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 438 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 Aug) and quiet levels
on days two and three (18 Aug, 19 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Aug 074
Predicted   17 Aug-19 Aug 074/074/073
90 Day Mean        16 Aug 079

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Aug  013/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Aug  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug  006/008-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/15/15