:Product: 0817RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Aug 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 229 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Aug 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (18
Aug, 19 Aug, 20 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 492 km/s at 16/2317Z.  Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 618 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (18 Aug, 19 Aug, 20
Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Aug 073
Predicted   18 Aug-20 Aug 073/073/073
90 Day Mean        17 Aug 079

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Aug  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Aug  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug  005/005-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/15/15