:Product: 0819RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Aug 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 231 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Aug 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (20
Aug, 21 Aug, 22 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 432 km/s at 19/0050Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
19/1512Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
19/1447Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 448 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (20 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (21 Aug, 22 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Aug 075
Predicted   20 Aug-22 Aug 075/073/073
90 Day Mean        19 Aug 079

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Aug  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Aug  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Aug-22 Aug  005/005-008/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/20
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    15/25/25