:Product: 0820RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Aug 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 232 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Aug 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
20/1557Z. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Aug,
22 Aug, 23 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 353 km/s at 20/0320Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
20/1255Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
20/1234Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 145 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (21 Aug,
22 Aug, 23 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Aug-23 Aug
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Aug 078
Predicted   21 Aug-23 Aug 079/079/079
90 Day Mean        20 Aug 079

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Aug  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Aug  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Aug-23 Aug  008/008-008/008-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Aug-23 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    25/25/25