:Product: 0822RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Aug 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 234 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Aug 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
22/1020Z from Region 2859 (N19E59). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Aug,
24 Aug, 25 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 333 km/s at 21/2107Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 167 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (23 Aug, 24 Aug)
and quiet to active levels on day three (25 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Aug 077
Predicted   23 Aug-25 Aug 077/077/076
90 Day Mean        22 Aug 079

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Aug  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Aug  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug  008/008-008/008-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/35
Minor Storm           05/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    25/40/50