:Product: 0824RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Aug 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 236 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Aug 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
24/1449Z from Region 2859 (N19E32). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (25
Aug, 26 Aug, 27 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 345 km/s at 24/2035Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
24/2026Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
24/0831Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 143 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (25 Aug, 27 Aug)
and unsettled to active levels on day two (26 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Aug-27 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Aug 081
Predicted   25 Aug-27 Aug 080/080/080
90 Day Mean        24 Aug 079

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Aug  008/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Aug  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Aug-27 Aug  012/015-014/018-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Aug-27 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/40/30
Minor Storm           10/20/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    40/55/40