:Product: 0825RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Aug 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 237 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Aug 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
25/0124Z from Region 2860 (S27E28). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Aug,
27 Aug, 28 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 406 km/s at 25/0050Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 25/0402Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
25/0402Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 125 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (26 Aug, 27
Aug, 28 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Aug-28 Aug
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Aug 084
Predicted   26 Aug-28 Aug 084/084/085
90 Day Mean        25 Aug 079

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Aug  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Aug  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Aug-28 Aug  012/015-013/018-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Aug-28 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/40/30
Minor Storm           10/20/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    40/55/40