:Product: 0826RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Aug 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 238 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Aug 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
26/1818Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Aug,
28 Aug, 29 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 417 km/s at 26/0247Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 139 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (27 Aug, 28 Aug) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (29 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Aug 089
Predicted   27 Aug-29 Aug 090/090/090
90 Day Mean        26 Aug 079

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Aug  008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Aug  011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Aug-29 Aug  012/016-009/012-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/20
Minor Storm           20/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    55/40/25