:Product: 0829RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Aug 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Aug 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
29/1003Z from Region 2860 (S29W23). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Aug, 31 Aug,
01 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 431 km/s at 29/2015Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at
29/2021Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
29/2011Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 11665 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and three (30 Aug, 01
Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (31 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Aug 089
Predicted   30 Aug-01 Sep 090/090/090
90 Day Mean        29 Aug 079

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Aug  017/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Aug  010/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep  022/025-007/008-013/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/40
Minor Storm           40/05/25
Major-severe storm    25/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/15/10
Minor Storm           15/30/25
Major-severe storm    80/30/65